Quantum Untangled: Can China maintain its quantum advantage amid US sanctions?
We need to talk about Hefei.
Quantum computing is a paradigm shift in the way information is processed, handled and understood. It is so radically different from what came before that it gives nations that may have missed the Silicon Era a chance to not only catch up but leapfrog the classic computing powers. China is betting heavily on that being the case, outpacing all other nations on investment in quantum from both private and public sources.
Early investment is already starting to reap rewards for the People’s Republic, not just in computing power, but across all quantum technologies. One of the most high-profile examples of this can be found in the city of Hefei. Researchers from China’s University of Science and Technology have made the city into a gigantic quantum hub, complete with a quantum communication network that, so the team claims, is nigh-on "unhackable". Built using fibre-optic cabling, the system entangles data in photons, encoded and decoded at nodes at either end of the data transfer so as to allow it to remain in a secure quantum state throughout its journey. While the system isn't the first of its kind – similar versions exist in Singapore and London – Hefei’s remains the world’s largest.
Chinese researchers also boast significant advancements in quantum computing generally, although the exact details are hard to verify due to secrecy. Earlier this year, for example, the South China Morning Post claimed that Juizhang, a quantum computer built by a team led by China's father of quantum computing, Pan Jianwei, could process AI tasks 180 million times faster than classical supercomputers. China is also deploying quantum solutions, with China Mobile unveiling a quantum cloud computing platform earlier this year. Offering hybrid and dedicated quantum computing, it includes 20+ qubit machines that will be upgraded as their performance improves. Meanwhile, Origin Quantum, a Chinese quantum firm based in Anhui province, announced a 24-qubit quantum computed called Wuyuan and is working on its own quantum operating system.
These breakthroughs are the result of investment from the Chinese government over decades – and, as a recent report by China Power reveals, these efforts aren’t slowing down. Beijing has been investing across sensing, communication and computing, with $15.3bn in government funding for quantum projects announced in 2022. The EU and the US, by contrast, respectively committed $8.4bn and $3.7bn in the same period.
The West is increasing its investment but it is still relatively small fry compared to the tens of billions being invested by China. The UK, for example, launched its national quantum strategy by promising investment in quantum tech and startups to the tune of £2.5bn over the next decade. The US, meanwhile, continues to maintain a sizeable lead in private quantum investment – IBM, for its part, has published than 400 quantum-related patents between 2010 and 2022, compared to China’s total of 900 arising from public and private efforts. The Biden administration has also demonstrated how keen it is to inure US businesses to the post-quantum future by passing the Quantum Computing Cybersecurity Preparedness Act, while also seeking to impose investment restrictions on any companies choosing to partner with their Chinese counterparts on all things quantum.
These new regulations fall in the same category as those ultimately designed to curtail China’s progress in advanced chip manufacturing methods, though whether they’ll actually succeed in stunting the People’s Republic’s quantum progress is hard to say. After all, China’s sustained commitment to quantum research and investment has protected it so far. While restrictions on CPU and GPU exports might cause some measure of disruption, the bigger issue facing the Biden administration is what to ban. Much of what is required for quantum computing to work, after all, is still in development, with startups in most major nations often building every part themselves.
Some possible areas of control could include software, with private companies in the US like Google and IBM, or the UK's Riverlane and Quantinuum leading on error-correction technology. This approach could backfire, however, as many of the underlying technologies such as lasers for controlling qubits or refrigerators for cooling are produced in one or more countries and need to be purchased by startups, big companies and researchers. In the end, I think, it will come down to whichever country attains raw quantum supremacy – a destination that can be reached through many technological paths.
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