Quantum Untangled: Oil for qubits
The future of quantum computing should be utopian. Its use in the oil and gas sector doesn’t fit with that vision.
You’ll clock by now that the innate premise of practical quantum computing is that it accelerates change for companies in ways hitherto unimaginable using classical computers. Quantum computers are supercharging forecasting in banks and energy companies, and helping pharmaceutical scientists discover new and powerful medicines. They’ve even been described as having huge potential in the fight against climate change, helping companies of all stripes to dynamically pinpoint how emissions are generated and cut them at source.
Much less has been said about quantum computers accelerating that process. In fact, a report released last week by GlobalData on the oil and gas industry’s embrace of quantum is a timely reminder that, ultimately, these unbelievably powerful machines are a tool like any other – one capable of being freely deployed by any organisation with enough resources at their disposal.
The energy sector has plenty of those. According to GlobalData, all of the leading oil and gas firms – BP, ExxonMobil, Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies – are experimenting with quantum technology. The overwhelming message, in the report and across their marketing campaigns, is that the sector’s intention is to harness quantum computers for benign, sustainable ends: molecular modelling to identify new materials for use in carbon capture, for example, or optimising supply chains. Quantum would, reads the GlobalData report, ‘also give them a first mover advantage when such computers actually become available.’
What happens when they obtain such an advantage? As far as the oil and gas sector is concerned, quantum computers aren’t just good for the planet — they’re good for profits, especially those obtained from savings in hydrocarbon extraction. Possible applications include using quantum circuits to find efficiencies in the refinement of hydrocarbons; sift through vast volumes of geological data to identify new oil reserves; and make tiny but potent improvements in drilling through the earth to find them.
Regarding the latter, Baker Hughes – one of the world’s leading oil companies – filed patents in 2021 concerned with using quantum computers to find the optimum position for drills prior to the creation of new wellbores. Oilfield services company SLB’s principal computational scientist, Rodney Lessard, also recently speculated about quantum computers’ potential in helping reduce pipe corrosion in the name of safety and lower maintenance costs, or determining to place new wells based on the availability of drilling equipment.
IBM, too, is keen to lend a helping hand to the oil and gas industry, arguing that quantum computing could be used to better understand subsurface flow dynamics and eliminate unproductive drill sites. ‘If the number of wells could be reduced by only 10%, the net cash flow of the top 32 North American unconventional oil producers would shift from a net loss of $1bn to a positive cash flow of $8bn,’ reads one such report on the subject.
While this is great news for the oil and gas companies, it doesn’t sound good for the planet. “Without clean energy, the growth in CO2 emissions would have been nearly three times as high,” the International Energy Agency’s executive director Fatih Birol said in March. Despite this state of affairs, “we still see emissions growing from fossil fuels, hindering efforts to meet the world’s climate targets.”
A series of UN studies published last autumn stated that emissions must fall by half by 2030 if the planet is to only heat by 1.5C – itself a level of warming that will wreak havoc on ecosystems and the global climate. Cautious estimates also put the date of quantum advantage at the end of this decade.
Faced with the existential threat posed by climate change, perhaps it’s time to start thinking hard about the kinds of objectives we don’t want society to pursue using quantum computers. After all, quantum has huge potential to reduce emissions throughout the energy industry. A report by McKinsey and Company last year suggested quantum computers could be used to formulate newer, greener fertilisers, and help design higher-density electric batteries, zero-carbon cement clinkers, carbon capture improvements and direct-air capture absorbents.
By contrast, permitting oil and gas companies to use quantum to hone fossil fuel extraction, even around the edges, is self-defeating. The temptation to do so will be hard to quash absent hard choices by leading quantum developers and regulators. Even as the world slowly transitions to a future dominated by renewable energy, profit margins in the oil and gas sector remain scandalously high. As vulnerable communities get submerged by floods, burned by wildfires or swept away in hurricane-force winds, it should be incumbent upon all of us to make decisions that lessen the impact of climate change — and think wisely about adding new technologies into the mix.
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